What is line movement?
In sports betting, line movement refers to a change in the odds, point spread, or over/under value of a particular bet from the time it is initially released to the start of the game.
What causes line movements?
Line movements can happen for various reasons, but it primarily reflects how bettors are placing their wagers.
Here's a breakdown:
Initial line: Sportsbooks set the initial odds (point spread, moneyline, over/under) based on their analysis of the teams involved, injuries, recent performances, and other factors.
Betting activity: As bets come in, sportsbooks monitor the volume and distribution of money on each side.
Adjusting the line: If they see an imbalance in betting towards one side, they will adjust the line to try and encourage bets on the other side. This helps them balance their risk and ensure they make a profit regardless of the outcome.
For example, imagine a football game where Team A is initially favored by 7 points (7-point spread). If a significant amount of money is wagered on Team B (the underdog), the sportsbook might increase the spread to 7.5 or 8 points to make Team A less attractive and entice more bets on Team B.
Line movements can also occur due to factors such as injury reports, weather conditions, or other relevant information that affects the perceived likelihood of one team winning over another.